Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 152.75 price level occurred when the MACD indicator started to move down from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, a significant drop in the pair did not materialize, and after a 20-pip decline, demand for the dollar returned. Today, rather disappointing data was released for Japan's Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI, but the yen ignored it. The fact that economic activity in Japan has started to decline limits the Bank of Japan's plans to raise interest rates soon. Despite the pair's reaction to the data with a decline, which was somewhat surprising, the current situation presents an opportunity to take advantage of the correction and re-enter at more attractive prices in line with the upward trend. As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point around 152.41 is reached (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise to 153.01 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 153.01, I plan to exit buys and open sell positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips downward from this level). Further growth of the pair is likely, but it's best to buy during corrections. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 152.10 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise towards the opposite levels of 152.41 and 153.01 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 152.10 level is broken (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 151.35, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips upward from this level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of weak activity around the daily high. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 152.41 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline towards the opposite levels of 152.10 and 151.53 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

Thin Green Line: The entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.

Thick Green Line: The estimated price at which take-profit orders can be set, or profits can be manually secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin Red Line: The entry price for selling the trading instrument.

Thick Red Line: The estimated price at which take-profit orders can be set, or profits can be manually secured, as further declines below this level are unlikely.

MACD Indicator: Considering overbought and oversold zones is crucial when entering the market.

Important Note for Beginners:

Novice traders in the Forex market must be cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price movements. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your entire deposit without stop-loss orders, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I've presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.